I had a bit of "spare" time at work (what I like to call "morning", as opposed to "afternoon", when I like to nap), so I started doing a few calculations.
There are 8 autocross races left, so I looked at 2 scenarios (all assume 4 people competing for STX, so the points available are 21, 16, 14 and 12 for the 4 positions):
1. Scott wins every one of the remaining 8 races
If Scott comes first in STX in every one of those 8 races, he will end the season with 308 points with no drops, and 248 points with 4 drops.
What does Dean have to do to win? If he comes second in 2 races (16 points each) and third in 2 races (14 points each) then doesn't even bother showing up for the last 4 races he will end the season with 249 points, and win STX by 1 point.
2. Dean continues to win every race
On the other hand, if Dean continues to come first in every race, and Scott continues to come second, Dean will win STX in 3 more races (after round 12). At that point, even if Dean missed the last 5 races he would end up with 252 points. If Scott then went on to win the last 5 races he would still only end up with 233 with 4 drops.
So in order to win STX Dean needs to either:
- Win 2 races and just show up to a third race
- Win 1 race and just show up to 3 races
- Come second in 2 races and third in 2 races
Sorry scott, but I don't like your chances
