I'm pretty sure the problem is the inboard CV joint on the left front axle. The grease is probably leaking from the CV along the axle into the diff and then back out that differential side retainer once it gets to the oil seal. I don't think there's anything wrong with the tranny or diff. That's not tranny oil... mine's blue.
I'm currently still in "negotiations" with Michael Hohl and Subaru of America about getting it done under warranty... I think I'll be able to work something out... just not sure if it'll be done in time for the Lovelock trip.
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