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No one really wants to blow themselves to bits if they don't have to.
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Oh, and while I think all your remarks about China are (from our rational economic point of view) correct, it still doesn't take into account possible cultural undercurrents and long-term views. There is always that straining desire in the human mind (or lab rat's) to "take over the world". We've done it technologically and economically to a certain extent, but despite what the flaming Dem campaign managers would have us think, we do NOT own the world militarily (that was back in the late 40's). We can't even get it done against total disorganization. For the short term, the whole "China rising to a profitable and prosperous position as THE world economic power" thing is true. However, ONCE that happens, there is no guaranteeing what happens down the road. Leaders in power (and even popular desire) can go in strange directions in countries with millenia-long homogenous cultural roots. By the way, that's another reason why the US has been comparatively a very generous steward in the decades following WW2......