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Old 2004-06-16, 10:07 AM   #1
MikeK
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Default Can Scott win STX?
I had a bit of "spare" time at work (what I like to call "morning", as opposed to "afternoon", when I like to nap), so I started doing a few calculations.

There are 8 autocross races left, so I looked at 2 scenarios (all assume 4 people competing for STX, so the points available are 21, 16, 14 and 12 for the 4 positions):

1. Scott wins every one of the remaining 8 races

If Scott comes first in STX in every one of those 8 races, he will end the season with 308 points with no drops, and 248 points with 4 drops.

What does Dean have to do to win? If he comes second in 2 races (16 points each) and third in 2 races (14 points each) then doesn't even bother showing up for the last 4 races he will end the season with 249 points, and win STX by 1 point.

2. Dean continues to win every race

On the other hand, if Dean continues to come first in every race, and Scott continues to come second, Dean will win STX in 3 more races (after round 12). At that point, even if Dean missed the last 5 races he would end up with 252 points. If Scott then went on to win the last 5 races he would still only end up with 233 with 4 drops.

So in order to win STX Dean needs to either:

- Win 2 races and just show up to a third race
- Win 1 race and just show up to 3 races
- Come second in 2 races and third in 2 races

Sorry scott, but I don't like your chances
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Old 2004-06-16, 10:18 AM   #2
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Old 2004-06-16, 10:27 AM   #3
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Street Mod is still entirely up for grabs Scott....
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Old 2004-06-16, 10:27 AM   #4
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Default Re: Can Scott win STX?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeK
1. Scott wins every one of the remaining 8 races


2. Dean continues to win every race
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Old 2004-06-16, 10:27 AM   #5
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Default Re: Can Scott win STX?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeK
Sorry scott, but I don't like your chances


I'm not surprised. To be honest, the interesting numbers would be to figure out what you need to do in order to beat me for 2nd in STX!

As far as gettin whupped by Dean... no biggie. I feel like I've already improved a ton over last season having Dean to chase after, and that's what I need to do if I want to ever be competative at a national level.

Last season the pressure from Theo really helped me to get better. Unfortunately I think Theo over-cooked his tires near the end of the season last year, so I pulled away. It's too bad he didn't campaign the white wagon this season with Dean, Tyson and I (and now Mike!)... it would have been an awesome dog-fight (well, at least for 2nd place)! But if I had a race-prepped Ghia in my garage, I'd race that in a heartbeat over a WRX.
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Old 2004-06-16, 10:29 AM   #6
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Default Re: Can Scott win STX?
Quote:
Originally Posted by AtomicLabMonkey
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeK
1. Scott wins every one of the remaining 8 races


2. Dean continues to win every race
You == owned by Tripod.... don't you know not to link to images over there!!?
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Old 2004-06-16, 10:30 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BAN SUVS
Street Mod is still entirely up for grabs Scott....
I don't think there are enough events left for me to run SM and win anything.
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Old 2004-06-16, 10:31 AM   #8
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Default Re: Can Scott win STX?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sperry
You == owned by Tripod.... don't you know not to link to images over there!!?
That picture was too good not to.
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Old 2004-06-16, 10:37 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by sperry
Quote:
Originally Posted by BAN SUVS
Street Mod is still entirely up for grabs Scott....
I don't think there are enough events left for me to run SM and win anything.
Actually you could probably win SM on your Kumhos. Jim is the only one running it regularly, and his raw times are mostly slower than yours. Still plenty of events left.
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Old 2004-06-16, 10:40 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BAN SUVS
Quote:
Originally Posted by sperry
Quote:
Originally Posted by BAN SUVS
Street Mod is still entirely up for grabs Scott....
I don't think there are enough events left for me to run SM and win anything.
Actually you could probably win SM on your Kumhos. Jim is the only one running it regularly, and his raw times are mostly slower than yours. Still plenty of events left.
You have to run 51% of the events in one class to be eligible for a season championship... we've run 9 out of 17... so the 8 events left aren't enough to pull off a win... true I might be able to get a points lead, but it wouldn't be worth a trophy.

Oh, and I have Falkens...
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Old 2004-06-16, 11:56 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by BAN SUVS
Quote:
Originally Posted by sperry
Quote:
Originally Posted by BAN SUVS
Street Mod is still entirely up for grabs Scott....
I don't think there are enough events left for me to run SM and win anything.
Actually you could probably win SM on your Kumhos. Jim is the only one running it regularly, and his raw times are mostly slower than yours. Still plenty of events left.
Kumhos'??? We don;t have no stinking Kumhos...

Scott, I'll switch to SM with you and we can battle it out to the end of the season... John Evans is kicking my ass every week in street tire anyway....

I guess we can just focus on PAX...The battle for 10th place!!!
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Old 2004-06-16, 12:55 PM   #12
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Kumhos'??? We don;t have no stinking Kumhos...

Scott, I'll switch to SM with you and we can battle it out to the end of the season... John Evans is kicking my ass every week in street tire anyway....

I guess we can just focus on PAX...The battle for 10th place!!!
Nice... talk someone who was running slower raw times than you into a PAX class that's like .15 higher... way to be a nice guy there sport.
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:22 PM   #13
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Wow, you work all day, and miss an entire oportunity to gloat...

I still have an SM car handy to spank you boys with, so don't even go there...

And most importantly, it is to late to switch classes. You must have 51%, or 9 events in a class to be eligible for the season awards this year... Only 8 left... Sorry.
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:24 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean
Wow, you work all day, and miss an entire oportunity to gloat...

I still have an SM car handy to spank you boys with, so don't even go there...

And most importantly, it is to late to switch classes. You must have 51%, or 9 events in a class to be eligible for the season awards this year... Only 8 left... Sorry.
WT3PA.
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:24 PM   #15
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Wow, you work all day, and miss an entire oportunity to gloat...
Gloat, d'you mean how close he got to you on Sat.?
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:26 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by dknv
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean
Wow, you work all day, and miss an entire oportunity to gloat...
Gloat, d'you mean how close he got to you on Sat.?
Muhahahhhhhaha! Owned!
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:27 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sperry
Quote:
Originally Posted by dknv
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean
Wow, you work all day, and miss an entire oportunity to gloat...
Gloat, d'you mean how close he got to you on Sat.?
Muhahahhhhhaha! Owned!
Ask any racer, any REAl racer, and he'll tell you... whether it's by an inch or a mile, winning is winning.
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:30 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BAN SUVS
Quote:
Originally Posted by sperry
Quote:
Originally Posted by dknv
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean
Wow, you work all day, and miss an entire oportunity to gloat...
Gloat, d'you mean how close he got to you on Sat.?
Muhahahhhhhaha! Owned!
Ask any racer, any REAl racer, and he'll tell you... whether it's by an inch or a mile, winning is winning.
I gotta capture and post my last run video from Sunday... I actually made that joke on myself after I was back on grid.

(IBAustinTellsMeHeStillHasn'tSeenTheVideoFromAtwat er)
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:35 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sperry
Quote:
Originally Posted by BAN SUVS
Quote:
Originally Posted by sperry
Quote:
Originally Posted by dknv
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean
Wow, you work all day, and miss an entire oportunity to gloat...
Gloat, d'you mean how close he got to you on Sat.?
Muhahahhhhhaha! Owned!
Ask any racer, any REAl racer, and he'll tell you... whether it's by an inch or a mile, winning is winning.
I gotta capture and post my last run video from Sunday... I actually made that joke on myself after I was back on grid.

(IBAustinTellsMeHeStillHasn'tSeenTheVideoFromAtwat er)
For Real! I want to hear the end part with the expletive deleteds!
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:36 PM   #20
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For Real! I want to hear the end part with the expletive deleteds!
I think I say "Damn" about 100 times as I'm blowing the last turn...
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:38 PM   #21
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WT3PA.


And before we go throwing around Owned's, who came in second on Saturday in STX???

Great driving Mike... Keep reading the Solo Bible...
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:41 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Dean
Quote:
Originally Posted by sperry
WT3PA.


And before we go throwing around Owned's, who came in second on Saturday in STX???

Great driving Mike... Keep reading the Solo Bible...
I got nuthin on that one. Mike was plain old faster than me... 'course he was driving your car Dean. I think it's the holes in your fenders making the car lighter! (Wait a minute... I could have protested *both* of you guys and taken 1st place for the weekend!!! )
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:43 PM   #23
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pOrtest!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:45 PM   #24
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Again, WT3PA = Even google couldn't help me on this one...
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Old 2004-06-16, 04:45 PM   #25
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welcome to 3 posts ago. Sheesh.
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