John's Nationals PAX article comments

[Dean]

I sent this to John and Jim Gandy, but thought I'd post it here as well.
__________________________________________________ ___________

John, I appreciate your insightful look into the PAX results for this year's nationals, but wanted to mention some confusion that might be caused by your article.

Bullet #2:

As someone who drove a bone stock, under prepared CS Miata to 7th place in PAX twice last year, and 9th overall for the season, I would bet that a well prepared CS car would be capable of winning PAX at Stead.

Bullet #9:

A ST car running in the appropriate SP class can only run race tires. No other SP allowances are permitted. (See Sec 15, SP introduction paragraph 6)

If the intent was to comment on the differences between a ST and SP prepared car, then there are many more than "throttle body change and removal of emissions equipment" that have significant performance improvements. Open boost on forced induction cars is a significant one among the many.

And due to those differences in preparation for ST and SP prepared cars, in many classes, it is not possible to apply on unapply our ST modifier and get meaningful data between the two.

Bullet #12:

There are 8 seconds between the top CS car and the top EM car. 82.680
vs. 90.665

The other interesting way to look at the data would be to look each course independently.

Overall, the reality is that until Rick publishes his methodology and accepts input on it, or somebody develops a new statistical model and handicapping system to replace PAX, we are stuck with it, or as I recommended last year stop using it.

[Dean]

Original article:

Originally Posted by John Evans

How PAX Fared at the Solo Nationals
Getting to the Heartland of the Matter

Wow, the new surface at Heartland Park produced some interesting results. I am trying to get some specifics on the temperatures during the days there, to see if that will explain some of the unusual results. I can find no reports of precipitation. The surface was reported to be very slick, partially as a result of sand blown onto the asphalt. I'll list some of the surprises in no particular order. I will likely do some more work on this subject, but I just got the North American Pylon magazine with the ’06 Nationals results and wanted to share my initial observations. Due to the huge participation differences between Open and Ladies, I only used the Open classes for this study. In addition to using the top times of each Open class, I also averaged the top two best times in an effort to reduce the effect of a fantastic performance by a single driver. An important thing to remember here is that these are all great drivers in every class. If they were all put in the same car and given three runs, their times would be very close. Okay, now for the surprises:

1. CS beat BS, XP, GP, FSP and EM for raw time and tied AS. Kevin Dietz, whom many of us have seen drive, drove the winning Soltice in CS. I think the big tires (265s will fit on the stock rims)
may help explain the success within CS but to tie AS and beat all those others? Some drivers said the courses favored narrow cars. The CS class did run on Thursday and Friday when the courses
were cleaner. But wait, there is more.

2. Based on the top driver in each class, CS won PAX? Pigs will land at Stead before CS could win PAX at Stead. With the top two drivers averaged, CS placed second.

3. SM2 won PAX when the top two driver’s times were averaged.

4. Only one Miata in the top seven places in CS?

5. EVOs placed 1 and 2 in BSP, beating Harold Olsen in 3rd. Is a pattern already forming here?

6. BSP beat ASP in raw time.

7. Only two Corvettes in the top seven SS finishes, but SS beat ASP, BSP and FP in raw time. And with the top two averaged, SS placed third in PAX. But traction is the big issue. The Lotus
Elises and Porsches have more rear weight bias.

8. A Kart placed second in raw time. No surprise there except it only placed mid-pack in PAX. I had predicted the smooth surface at Heartland would allow the Karts to excel in PAX. They did run
Tuesday and Wednesday, the days when the course was the slickest.

9. The SCCA classes that run on street tires (STS, STX, STS2, STU) averaged slightly below mid-pack (10th, 22nd, 25th, 28th) in PAX. If we took their raw times, put them in a Street Prepared
class for which they would qualify and apply our region's Street Tire adjustment they would have come out as 14th, 18th, 29th, and 24th respectively, leaving them slightly below mid-pack -- on
average, exactly where they were. Street Prepared allows two changes that Street touring does not, that is throttle body change and removal of emissions equipment. These changes can affect
potential engine power which could translate to reduced times, but we are talking about very small increases in power and thus miniscule decreases in time.

10. FS was 31st of 35 classes in raw time. FS ran on the first day, Tuesday, in the first heat when the course was especially sandy.

11. EM placed lowest in PAX and was beaten on raw time by AS, BS and CS. Again it was a traction problem. EM ran Tuesday and Wednesday.

12. There was over seven seconds between top PAX and bottom PAX.

If I draw any conclusion from all of this, it is that the closest competition is within class. Raw times and PAX times are very dependent upon equitable conditions to be a useful indicator of driver performance.

[MattR]

Thanks Dean, all excellent points.

Although, I'm to the point where I don't feel the need to drop the PAX race, it's an added level of competition that is fun for a number of competitors, however, it shouldn't have such an emphasis placed on it's worth; as some people have continued to do.

The class battles are what matter, and truth be told, our region is comprised of mostly unprepped cars anyway, that is the main reason the PAX isn't "working" for some people.

[MPREZIV]

Originally Posted by MattR's sig

keep auto-x fun

+1

[Kevin M]

#4 explains #2. CS will win PAX in Reno when somebody shows up in a Solstice/Sky with 265 R-compounds, and drives well. John is probably right that a CS Miata won't beat a good Corvette in PAX, but they aren't the class-dominant car in CS anymore.

And yeah, the boost allowance in SP is huge. No way an STU Evo/STi beats ASP in raw time on race tires.

[sperry]

Originally Posted by BAN SUVS

#4 explains #2. CS will win PAX in Reno when somebody shows up in a Solstice/Sky with 265 R-compounds, and drives well. John is probably right that a CS Miata won't beat a good Corvette in PAX, but they aren't the class-dominant car in CS anymore.

And yeah, the boost allowance in SP is huge. No way an STU Evo/STi beats ASP in raw time on race tires.

+1 on the CS Miata comment. No offense intended, but I think people need to get it into their heads that the Miata is no longer a dominant autocross car. No matter how fun they are to drive, there are cars out now days that are easier to drive with far more power.

Forced induction and AWD are ruining autocross... if you're behind the wheel of an underpowered Mazda.

[Kevin M]

I wonder if the MR2 guys bitched as much about the Miata 15 years ago as the Miata guys are bitching now.

[Joeyy]

Is there a real push to drop PAX? I enjoyed the additional results other then with my class. Dropping PAX would ruin auto!..

[MikeK]

Originally Posted by Joeyy

Dropping PAX would ruin auto!..

True, but would it ruin it more or less than keeping it?

[Dean]

My point about the Miata was only that an actually well prepared CS car with a good driver could win PAX against the typically underprepared cars in Reno. Miata would have a harder time than solstace, but either way would work.

[sperry]

Originally Posted by Joeyy

Is there a real push to drop PAX? I enjoyed the additional results other then with my class. Dropping PAX would ruin auto!..

The real issue is that back in the day (before I was racing) there was a Driver of the Year award that was subjectively voted on by the Board of Directors. People felt it was unfair, so the PAX championship became the "objective" replacement for DOTY. I guess it work okay because no one bitched about how unfair PAX was when they chose it as the way to select the "best" driver.

Now, as new cars (like our WRXs, STIs and EVOs... as well as the much improved C-5 and C6 Vettes) join the fray and start beating the old guard, many of the past DOTY contenders are finding themselves out of contention. Many of them believe that it's due to the new cars having a PAX advantage due to our altitude.

What's important to remember is that to us newbies, top PAX was *never* the "driver of the year"... we've only know it as just the PAX Championship, and for the most part I think we all understand that PAX is flawed. Plus, most of the new folks drive newer cars that are simply faster and easier to drive than the old class killer Miatas. But put yourself in the other folk's shoes: you're a contender, you don't feel like you're driving poorly, but you can't seem to keep up with the n00bs and their turbo cars. Experience should trump technology, right? So what's the problem? It must be the PAX factors.

To be frank I can't really argue with that logic. PAX is unfair, and there is plenty of good physics behind why our altitude would make PAX even less fair. But I don't care. Partly because PAX and altitude work to my advantage, but also partly because I recognize that PAX is what it is. If I drove a Miata I'd like to think that I'd recognize that it's a poor car to go after the PAX Championship with and not worry too much about where I place. I certainly wouldn't want to kill PAX and ruin the fun for the people that enjoy it. But that's just me speculating. I'm not driving a Miata.

Unfortunately, a solution that makes everyone happy is impossible. Hell, even a solution that makes half the people happy seems unlikely. There's talk of having two championships: High Horsepower PAX and Low Horsepower PAX, and split the classes up. IMO, it's a bit of a cop-out as well as a new can of worms when it comes to picking which classes are in which PAX. But also the best compromise I've seen yet, because the other options seem to be either leave it totally unchanged or drop it completely.

[Joeyy]

What class will Vick's new Honda be in next year and do you think we could look at him to be a front runner for PAX or is the Honda for TT?

[AtomicLabMonkey]

Who gives a crap about PAX? I've never understood all the fuss. It's a made up time derived from a made up magic multiplier. It's just a form of bench racing. Racing directly against the stopwatch in class is the only thing that really counts.

[Dean]

Originally Posted by AtomicLabMonkey

Who gives a crap about PAX? I've never understood all the fuss. It's a made up time derived from a made up magic multiplier. It's just a form of bench racing. Racing directly against the stopwatch in class is the only thing that really counts.

When all you have is 1-3 car classes as Reno has often had historically and currently, some sort of handicaping system like PAX was the only way to have competition other than changing cars.

And the old guard will just have to get over it IMHO.

You can't drive for 6 miutes every 3rd weekend and expect to compete with drivers that spend 20 times that maybe per month. (Though posibly under different cicumstances.) Skill and experience have value, but so does practice and vehicle preperation.

No matter what, there will always be "the car" for every class. (maybe two in rare cases) and there will always be a killer class in PAX because somebody will figure out something over the winter that will make last year's data invalid.

And yes altitude makes a difference, but not as much as having a decent F'ing car, and a dirver who knows how to drive.

Or you can try the John Evans method and get a different car every yeartrying to second guess what will be the PAX car and spend 1/2 the year or more getting the feel for it and setting it up and fail, and occasionally get your ass kicked by your co-driver in the same car because she just drives it how it is, and doesn't complain.

I personally am sick of the whining. I stick to my old saying...

Read the f'inging rule book....

Wait, wrong one....

Shut Up and Drive...

[Tahoe C5]

You'll never please the masses, as it is mentioned above. In the limited time that I have been participating I've resigned myself to the fact that "IT"S THE DRIVER"! Everyone that has finished consistently in the top 10 in PAX is a likely "Driver of the Year". If anyone really wants to know how they stack up against a real driver, go to an Evolution School and see how fast your car is in the hands of a pro! If I ever get within 1 second of one of those folks, I will then feel qualified to comment on the fairness of PAX. In the meantime GETOVERIT.



BIG HAT..............NO CATTLE!

[MattR]

Haha, good point there Loren...

[tysonK]

where is ultralight?